S&P 500 needs to hold this level to avoid a June swoon

[view original post]

oatawa/iStock via Getty Images

The odds of the broader market seeing a choppy summer are declining as odds of a June swoon rise, according to BTIG.

“We have recently been expecting a ‘summer-chop’ in the 3,800-4,250 zone before an eventual breakdown towards 3,400-3,500. We thought a momentum reversion where winners got bought and losers sold would create chop at the index level, but last week is a reminder that the risk continues to be to the downside,” technical strategist Jonathan Krinsky wrote in a note. “The summer-chop scenario is still in play as long as 3,800 holds, but the odds of a ‘June Swoon’ straight to 3,400 have gone up significantly, in our view.”

“There are now just a quarter of S&P 500 (SP500) (NYSEARCA:SPY) stocks above their 200 DMA, the lowest for this cycle,” Krinsky said. “However, we are still not to what we would consider washout levels. The main hideouts remain Energy (XLE), Utilities (XLU), Staples (XLP), Materials (XLB) and large-cap HC. We think these areas succumb sooner than later.”

It’s also difficult to defend Bitcoin (BTC-USD) here, he said.

“Since hitting a brief low of ~25,000 in mid-May, Bitcoin has held up relatively well. Its inability to hold above 30,000 however makes it difficult to defend here with little meaningful support until ~20,000.”

Among stocks, charts of consumer finance stocks Ally (ALLY), American Express (AXP), Discover Financial (DFS) and Synchrony Financial (SYF) look vulnerable, said.

Megacaps Apple (AAPL), Berkshire-Hathaway (BRK.B), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Microsoft (MSFT), which make up 18% of the S&P, are rolling over, he added.

In contrast, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee says FAANG can fight the Fed.