The simplest way to benefit from a rising market is to buy an index fund. While individual stocks can be big winners, plenty more fail to generate satisfactory returns. Investors in Sandon Capital Investments Limited (ASX:SNC) have tasted that bitter downside in the last year, as the share price dropped 26%. That contrasts poorly with the market decline of 4.6%. At least the damage isn’t so bad if you look at the last three years, since the stock is down 14% in that time. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 20% in the last 90 days. However, one could argue that the price has been influenced by the general market, which is down 9.0% in the same timeframe.
Now let’s have a look at the company’s fundamentals, and see if the long term shareholder return has matched the performance of the underlying business.
While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company’s share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
During the last year Sandon Capital Investments saw its earnings per share increase strongly. While the business is unlikely to sustain such a high growth rate for long, it’s great to see. So we are surprised the share price is down. Some different data might shed some more light on the situation.
We don’t see any weakness in the Sandon Capital Investments’ dividend so the steady payout can’t really explain the share price drop. From what we can see, revenue is pretty flat, so that doesn’t really explain the share price drop. Of course, it could simply be that it simply fell short of the market consensus expectations.
The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Sandon Capital Investments, it has a TSR of -21% for the last 1 year. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
A Different Perspective
We regret to report that Sandon Capital Investments shareholders are down 21% for the year (even including dividends). Unfortunately, that’s worse than the broader market decline of 4.6%. However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there’s a good opportunity. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 1.6% per year over half a decade. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Take risks, for example – Sandon Capital Investments has 3 warning signs we think you should be aware of.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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