- It was a bullish Saturday, with BTC rising by 0.21% to end the day at $24,633.
- There were no crypto events to provide direction, leaving BTC in a range-bound session as investors considered the events from the week and what lies ahead.
- The Fear & Greed Index remained within the Greed zone, holding steady at 60/100.
On Saturday, bitcoin (BTC) rose by 0.21%. Consolidating a 4.48% rally from Friday, BTC ended the day at $24,633. Despite the bullish session, BTC fell short of the $25,000 handle for the first time in three sessions.
After a range-bound start to the day, BTC fell to a late-morning low of $24,450. Steering clear of the First Major Support Level (S1) at $23,614, BTC rose to a late afternoon high of $24,878. Coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $25,287, BTC eased back to end the day at $24,633.
Easing Regulatory Risk Continued to Deliver BTC Price Support
It was a quiet Saturday, with no crypto events to affect investor appetite. The lack of events left investors to consider the events from the week.
Following the SEC moves against crypto staking and stablecoins, increased US lawmaker scrutiny of SEC activity delivered a bullish mid-week session. While the shift in sentiment toward regulatory risk trumped Fed Fear, the increased likelihood of a more aggressive Fed interest rate trajectory remains a crypto market headwind.
However, there would need to be a deteriorating macroeconomic environment would impact investor sentiment. The latest round of US stats removed any immediate fear of a US economic recession. Retain sales surged by 3.0%, with labor market conditions tight despite the Fed’s policy moves to bring inflation to target.
The Day Ahead
With no US economic indicators for investors to consider, BTC and the broader market will remain in the hands of the crypto news wires today.
SEC and US lawmaker chatter will remain focal points. However, investors would need to monitor the crypto news wires for Binance, FTX, Genesis, and Silvergate Bank-related news.
The NASDAQ mini will likely provide direction in the final hour as investors consider the US economic outlook and Fed monetary policy.
The Fear & Greed Index Holds Steady on Range-Bound BTC Session
Today, the BTC Fear & Greed Index held steady at 60/100. The Index remained within the Greed zone, with a range-bound BTC session leaving investor sentiment bullish.
Easing regulatory jitters and US lawmaker chatter returned the Index to the Greed zone this week. We expect the further easing of regulatory risk to trump Fed Fear. However, there is a high degree of regulatory uncertainty in the US, which will continue to impact buyer appetite.
After returning to the Greed zone, the Index must avoid the Neutral zone to support a BTC breakout from $25,000 to target $30,000. However, an Index return to the Fear zone would signal a near-term bullish trend reversal.
SEC activity and US lawmaker chatter will remain the key drivers over the near term.
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action
At the time of writing, BTC was up 0.48% to $24,752. A bullish start to the day saw BTC rise from an early low of $24,628 to a high of $24,761.
BTC needs to avoid a fall through the $24,654 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $24,857. However, a return to $25,000 would signal a breakout session. The crypto news wires need to be crypto-friendly to support an extended rally.
In the event of an extended rally, BTC would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $25,082 and the Thursday high of $25,234. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $25,510.
A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $24,429 into play. However, barring a crypto event-fueled crypto sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$24,000. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $24,226 should limit the downside.
The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $23,798.
Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bullish signal. BTC sat above the 50-day EMA ($23,455). The 50-day EMA pulled further away from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA widening from the 200-day EMA, delivering bullish signals.
A hold above the Major Support Levels and the 50-day EMA ($23,455) would support a breakout from R1 ($24,857) to target R2 ($25,08). However, a fall through S1 ($24,429) would give the bears a run at S2 ($24,226). Barring a crypto event, BTC should avoid the 50-day EMA ($23,455).